The recent regulation on real estate topics such as sky snow

 The recent regulation on real estate topics such as sky snow, sand, I want to really understand the situation at home and abroad, read Chapter Lang and Dai Xuwen people may have told me the same view; lazy to explain his own point of view of the Links a Lang now, still ignorant of the country want to give people injections Sober! following text Links:
fact, my friend, no country in the world will care about this subject today, the world does not regulation of a government would be so real estate, to which it can be said of a situation is already possessed by the devil.
me give an example in terms of, we even Recently added property tax to be introduced, to what end? to suppress the room Price, my friend, then came out of this shocked the world, you know why?
property tax rates to suppress it? with a minimum of reason do not understand, so for this I have only four government regulation Word mm nothing to say. even the most basic concepts at least do not understand the real estate management unit, you want me to talk about the what with the Lang, what to talk about it?
even told me that this was many things, out of 90 after several control measures we need today to talk about the boring subject I do not know why you this is a failure 90 times, and today is still so out of control prices.
world The purpose of introduction of property tax countries are doing to raise funds to local government development purposes, and is very specific.
such as the United States, property taxes can only be done after two uses, the first of the local police with the second public schools. ENTITLED TO BE moved to its use, not as we do when the expenditure, how to do it love how dry it is not possible.
but then again, China is the world's only our dominated by real estate market, you absolutely unimaginable.
we have in Singapore, high-end real estate such as ours, like everywhere, only 3% of real estate to sell you believe it?
us then to Sweden, for example, half of the real estate people are building their own joint venture, we can do?
even in the end you will wonder that we are not a socialist country in the world the Chinese people still like this, is inconceivable.
So today I come, I do not know how to talk about this subject, but time is very short. For purposes of this topic, you will find the whole of China is its absurdity, for example, which around the world industry, traders can always go to the mountains, talk about life, about philosophy, in which an industry's business? Do you think we do not do real estate business doing?
that I would ask you, as we Dongguan, the owner of these manufacturers, Is it possible to climb the mountain, chairman, talk about life, about philosophy?
not possible because of his incredibly busy, and why?
you see from this little thing out of this market is definitely abnormal or even can nurture a large number of idle real estate developers, this is totally incomprehensible. then I ask why you would come this far then?
fact, again, the April 19 launch control measures, and we wonder why you now launched last year, why go? how not to introduce it earlier?
so we could not help but think of a more ridiculous reason: because the two years of agonizing, We sell to the local government also sold, the money circle the circle; we real estate developers to make money earned this year is Xinjingdantiao, went to pieces. But no matter how you say, the money has earned, In these two interests has been achieved under the premise, we launched the Ye Hao to the media, people Ye Hao, criticized the real estate developers and local governments will form an unbreakable interest groups do?
This is the first problem we need to think about, but I would like to make an entry point from this, please Friends will think you are in addition to the development of the Government and the developers that you can legally purchase real estate in addition, do you have may have their own fund-raising, there is no such possibility Think? no possibility that this is not legitimate .
that I suddenly thought of a very interesting analogy, you know what people would go to marriage agencies do?
is not meeting people who love and less attractive to marriage agencies may to find the object, if one day the provisions of the Government suddenly not allowed to fall in love, married love and be issued a marriage certificate does not need to go to marriage agencies, then you know what results you?
marriage agency intermediary fees to ensure shot up, why?
you is to use your terms, you are deliberately organized the formation of such monopolies. So personal is the same with us, we speak more specifically, we can not be like the United States, Sweden, etc. Some countries, like Germany, like if we can not be some planning by the Government, after the release of some of the detailed terms of buying our own piece of land, our own Can you build a house? not allowed.
but I tell you that in addition to China than other countries can, why?
we have through a number of rules, law does not allow us to set section free love, free love were not as long as the marriage certificate issued to all of us to a monopoly that We are real estate developers and local government, then I ask my friends you already have the premise of a monopoly, so prices will only rise and fall, this is the first element, we must bear in mind in mind.
also a second question, I also draw attention to it. I just talked about the example of Singapore, real to real estate is not even 5%.
then turn to the Hong Kong, if our friends have the opportunity to go to Hong Kong Tourism Hong Kong tour guide will show you around saying The mood in Hong Kong to introduce you to celebrity homes, talk to you from the inside of his did you see his discontent, and even the hatred you can not see him, you know why?
because Hong Kong is far more than half of He is enjoying the residents of the Hong Kong Government to provide public housing, the housing is what nature? It has the characteristics of affordable housing, but also has the characteristics of low-cost housing, we are so expensive in Hong Kong in terms of local It low-cost housing only a few hundred pieces a month rent, and even three hundred dollars or two, but the Mainland and Hong Kong this is a large gap between wage income, and why Hong Kong can provide such a cheap low-cost homes?
because it is government's responsibility, governments around the world without a government does not put this thing to run as a top priority. affordable housing with low-cost housing in our sounds like a fantasy, have been implemented in other countries very much.
Take the example we are familiar with Hong Kong, Hong Kong, do you want low-cost housing with affordable housing that need to go through a very rigorous examination, and Hong Kong's civil service system not only clean and efficient, definitely not would like our side as affordable housing. For example, we often talk about the many examples, to the basement is a look at BMW and Mercedes-Benz, this injustice to the people how to psychological balance?
because in an economy developed to a stage in the people of Home Ownership of the circumstances, your estate as the market supply and demand for commodities and the development of people is not hate, this world itself will be able to achieve harmony. Then you say to our government Officials of wisdom does he does not know?
then we looking through the history of the State Council promulgated in 1998 a 23, which specified how? that our goal is to back the ruling to build 80% affordable housing, 10% of low-cost housing, and 10% of the commodity housing.
from 1998 to 2003, housing prices are relatively stable, of course, I can not say because of the contribution of the bill. But If you think about us down this road, it is that the Singapore model, the Hong Kong model, and will not come today. (Bloggers note: This is what the reign of Zhu Rongji, who is comparable to the Ming Jang)
but By 2003, the government also has announced a 18 unit, affordable housing for the so-called given a bizarre interpretation, that is the nature of the goods with protection of housing to replace affordable housing.
do so to 2003, Hong Kong, Singapore model disappear, we the people can no longer enjoy the benefit of all Singaporeans can enjoy, so 80% of affordable housing in 2003, 18 houses were all turned into a commodity. coupled with the original planning 10% to 90%, combined with our local governments have no power to do low-cost housing, so since 2003 has fostered a very China National mm housing.
background in these two prices has been laid today, the basic pattern of tumor, that China's real estate problem is a structural problem:
structure of one is not free love, free love can not get a marriage license, must be local governments and property developers through the formation of monopolies and to him to buy a house this is the first point.
second, with the protection of the nature of any housing, including affordable housing and low-cost housing in 2003, disappeared after, then this is the beginning of the two abnormal structures.
so what next? next to such a fuse, how to make China's housing prices in these two abnormal structures under the line of control.
then went back to 2006, our friends remember us really remember, and even real estate bubble is starting from the second half of 2006? to ask you why? I speak in front of two structural problems Buzhi Yu. the need for a thrust housing prices, the thrust to come from the beginning of 2003, around the deteriorating investment environment across the board the reality.
that started from around 2003 We are a manufacturing-based entrepreneurs in China, they face the investment environment has begun to deteriorate. So to the second half of 2006 we have found a number of enterprise funds to do the real economy, resulting in flow out of stock speculation, 2006 years of soul-stirring property market bubble, the stock market bubble.
and made me feel puzzled is the time in addition to property and stock markets also appeared outside ever seen before, even unheard of so-called tea with mahogany furniture story, you may even find that social capital has been flowing to the point? stock speculation can not satisfy their own place of these funds must also be entered with mahogany furniture, a series of tea, this is the beginning of a national crisis.
So in 2006 when I was called for the issue price of the stock bubble in the bubble views put forward, I think the overall deterioration in business environment for investment, which means that China's economy began a crisis across the board.
and you understand our so-called mainstream scholars of Chinese people with my view is contrary to, they say all this is because economic development is too successful, too rich people, so we only have so much money speculation in stocks and they This phenomenon is called normalized placed the interpretation of excess liquidity.
What is excess liquidity? It's too much money in your hand, property speculation bubble, stock market bubble.
in both completely different theoretical background, the government macro-control to make a choice, because the government wants to control the bubble through macro-control.
Dear friends, please note that this is the price the government began regulating the real beginning of the era, from 2006 started all wrong, has been wrong up to now, the government's macro-control had what kind of thinking? They think that way by raising interest rates, and so want to be able to recover liquidity, as many scholars say, because of excess liquidity of these caused.
So back then, what is excess liquidity, it is too much money on hand, property speculation bubble, stock market bubble. Therefore, the Government's gut reaction is to raise interest rates to recover liquidity, because In their mind as long as the liquid inside the back of the good, less money in our hands, not speculation, and not even stock, so the problem be resolved.
Well, to June 2007, the Government times to raise interest rates, my friends still remember the 2007 stock prices, how prices change? I leave alone to talk about stock prices, higher interest rates six times six times a day, without exception, all stock prices, and why? Government is not improving rate it? to raise interest rates to recover mobility is not it? so our hands for less money does not it? not speculation stock market is not it? prices should fall, stock prices should fall, why not drop it?
because the goal of government policy all wrong, and I mentioned is right, that is, after 2003 our economy has been sick, and had the first patient that I just told you a comprehensive investment and business environment has deteriorated, so the 2007 Every time the government raised interest rates is a further blow to our first patient, making our manufacturing-based private investment enterprise operating environment facing the worse, and worse then what is the result? He did not even , so he took out from the real economy more money to stock market speculation, which is why share prices in 2007 raised interest rates six times six times higher, the price you know and have continued to rise.
to the end of 2007, the Central Economic Work Conference closed officially announced the two-room, then this is the first time in years we have seen so very strict macro-control, I was directly in parts of speech I made clear my attitude, I said, the conclusions of the Central Economic Work Conference, all wrong, you more stringent regulation of the final result that price, the price is more line out of control, why? because such stringent regulation and control will make our first disease worse.
to the end of 2008, the financial tsunami has not yet started when we officially entered the so-called times before the financial crisis, the manufacturing industry in Guangdong Province have been closed down by 30%, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have closed down the manufacturing sector by 20%, may I ask what does this mean?
ask you to listen carefully to each friend, that is from 2003 years later in 2006 as an example if you see a bubble in China, it is a precursor to a future even greater crisis, remember my words. The bubble of 2006 shows a large number of the 2008 collapse of the manufacturing sector, this time the Government realized that the macro-control policies all wrong.
to the September 16, 2008, the Government think it is more reliable Lang, although his speech comparing it bluntly, whether spoken or right, so do the macro-control 180-degree turn from the past into absolute absolute tightening loose. and wrong! these people are not taught, and the net go to extremes, may I ask you friends, from 2006 to today, every one of you was the first I just repeated a high degree of disease is the investment you operating environment, it has improved or worsened? of course, is even worse, for several reasons I can be an example.
First, the RMB exchange rate appreciation of 20% in recent years China's export manufacturing sector hit hard.
second reason, three years ago the Government to reduce the proportion of export tax rebates, up to July last year, only to find a mistake, then transferred back to 17%, the problem is in your three years ago Why reduce it? you are not troubled? reduce the proportion of the results of the export tax rebate and export manufacturing in the horizontal insert on the back of a knife, really much, and very obvious to see the government completely misjudged the economic situation. < br> The third reason, in 2008 launched the first labor contract law, the introduction of this bill makes our third of China's manufacturing industry in trouble immediately, resulting in lost business results, as long as the companies lose workers to lose, labor Government to pay the Government lose lose. a bill to create business, labor, government three-lose situation that is not easy, and we have done.
Fourth, I have talked about the macro-control, the overall error. < br> The fifth factor, showdown tax increase last year dealt a further blow to our first example.
so I am very easy to talk about what happened the past few years, you find that government policies make everyone today not as good as the operating environment of investment in 2006, but also worse, and you may find it very strange that Professor Lang told the things you talk about how we think is the difference? how the more worse the more prices rise?
this is China, But our Chinese students is not only this disease, the virus makes the financial crisis you had to sit a second disease, what disease?
excess capacity, in fact, you think about the financial crisis would have told us that the virus is It does not matter, that is financial, we are so many Chinese banks are also the financial, not linked with others, playing their own, what are you excited? We also suffered a lot of impact and why? it back to our government, That is because the local government's policy over the years caused the error, making the loss of our entire economic system of immunity, what policies? two:
the first one, you are very familiar with the construction grip pull GDP.
s two, investment.
fact, the real estate you want to go this far today and is closely related to past history, I hope that through an hour lecture today, this thing you do with a relatively clear comb.
first What is called the building caught driving GDP? that is building bridges and roads and so on through all levels of government means, of course, driven by way of the real estate driven, and so we GDP, in recent years is not what our great economic growth, basically the infrastructure of real estate results driven, that is driven by the results of reinforced concrete.
That is why in 2008 57% of GDP which is steel and concrete, making the consumption of compressed to only 35%. By 2009 more worse, 67% of steel and concrete, only 29% of the consumer.
real estate you do good, to other businesses Ye Hao, you heard me tell you the data you must have the feeling of fear, no such countries around the world , the consumption of other countries have accounted for 80% of GDP. the world is only 30% of a country, that is China, so you can take the data from a fear of feeling, and these data combined with real estate This is a terrible development end ah, do you think?
second investment, what we all levels of government investment dare to sign, what dare to sell, what are daring to do, do not dare What environmental pollution, resource destruction, exploitation of local people did not care.
result of local government, as we crazy Suzhou investment is a prime example of this explosion of production capacity is greatly significant expansion of production capacity we have Up to the GDP of 70%.
Great, the first policy making consumption and only 35% in 2008 as an example, the second policy making capacity becomes 70%, 70% of the capacity consumption of 35% there , then my friends, you can not that part of the consumer is called what? called serious overcapacity, how should we do?
you solve this problem is not the disintegration of the Chinese economy immediately, come to the stage today, so we promote an unprecedented large-scale exports, allowing Americans to spend, give us absorb excess capacity, the question is how the American consumer spending ah? essentially borrow money to short the bubble ahead of consumer spending.
So now absorb excess capacity that we are spending bubble, as long as the bubble will burst, the question is how broken? financial crisis.
2008 年 11 months, in the year prior to each of China's export growth rate is more than 30%, in November 2008 for the first time into a negative 2.2% in the year 2009, a negative 16%, our exports can not get out, Americans do not consume, then we immediately exposed the crisis of overcapacity, so they had The second disease.
then please think about this for two years to our Chinese economy is not what you might think, because it happened a good bubble?
not, but we fall into a deeper crisis We not only have the same with the crisis of 2006: the first disease worsening investment environment, and has been even worse, the financial crisis and down and we had our second disease is called overcapacity.
So I ask my friend, when you do business after the birth of these two diseases What would you do?
we to January 2009 data as an example makes me feel shocking, January exports fell by 17%, 43% of imports actually fall. wow, this terrible! raw materials other than crude oil decreased by 50%, machinery and equipment imports plunged 40%, you know what you are terrible about? why we go through this year's property bubble to come from this .
That is what our Chinese manufacturing industry ah? simply say that imported raw materials, machinery and equipment imports of rough, raw materials or if a half months of imports, imports of machinery and equipment fell into four you know What is terrible about? you can not try to experience how terrible crisis?
that is in front of me talking about the two diseases we have not resolved the case of a manufacturing-based private entrepreneurs have not do it, so do not import raw materials, then do not want to be doing here?
We found a lot of money out of the real economy from the manufacturing end of 2008 to early 2009, began to enter the property market, stock market, buying a car to buy luxury goods , resulting in a series of so-called pick up, and that is our media that we often boast of the stock market in China started from November 2008 to pick up the global leader for four months, the Chinese property market in the world in 2009 we are thriving under extreme depression .
car? the whole world last year, down 20%, 30% of circumstances we are contrarian growth 46%.
luxury products? the world decreased by 5% to 15%, 20% growth in our contrarian Therefore, we Statistics Ye Hao, Ye Hao government units, media units Ye Hao, we lead the world to warm up.
you you think of today's property market is up because of warming caused by?
you are completely wrong to tell you a correct answer, we are not leading the world to pick up, we lead the world sick. It is because these two diseases is not resolved, to January data, the entrepreneurs did not do it, do not want to the results of a large number of entities economic capital began to enter the property market, stories, cars, luxury goods, causing a fever, because of illness to be a fever. Oh, say so on the clear, China is leading the world had a fever, that's it, this is a reasonable , or not at all unreasonable.
to you both think you can lead the world to brush, do you think possible? 08 I say this sentence is a total, how can you?
In fact, I talk to you if only you the world one country to pick up the Chinese, it means that you are not the same with other countries, and think of yourself with others if you are not the same man, in the end that you do not normally it, or others are not normal?
you think about it, China's leading pick up, that we are not normal.
believe that I talked about here, we are able to understand: So China is the only country in the world had Two patients, one is the overall deterioration of the investment environment, and the second is a serious overcapacity. so a lot of money to stock market speculation, resulting in fever, we misread it as a pick up. That is why we make money last year, real estate developers earned Xinjingdantiao, because your mind is clear, you are the operator of the market you are very clear that you earn money, money is not normal, is the money of our economic fever.
So today listening to a speech I put your fear of the past year to tell you, the original money earned is the fever, many of the investors in the last year, they also salvaged a lot of money, is not it? Why? fever of money.
Since fever , we will certainly pay a price, and then began to treat our government. From the beginning in October 2008, drove for six tigers of drugs to cure diseases. If can prescribe the right medicine to cure the patient, the end of 2008, 2009 the beginning of the bubble should be eased.
our friends will think if a man does with the wrong medicine, and that fever is more serious, you should understand, the following words Needless to say, in fact, I am smarter than you, listen to understand, is how we come to see these prescriptions, of course, time is limited today, I will not talk about too much.
first prescription for agricultural reform, and the second prescription health care reform. aside , why? did not talk about the texture.
then there were four prescriptions, listen clearly:
first, four trillion;
the second, ten industrial revitalization program;
section three, car appliances building materials to the countryside;
fourth, bank credit Liucheng do infrastructure.
Ladies and gentlemen, please answer my question, these four prescription what is the meaning of its essence?
Some people told me that the stimulating domestic demand, very well, so tell me I am very grateful. But today I took advantage of the opportunity of this sentence, I have to tell each and every friend of this country for so many years and the government introduced ten Several control measures 90, as well as several prescription Wen it all guilty of known problems like what?
the phenomenon of making decisions based on the surface this is the most terrible, and never understand the essence of what is the meaning. < br> What do you mean this sentence knows you do not know?
why do we control the more stressed the more worse every time? and even many government policies and even a few country several countries, what is it? called a place on the chaos, a chaos to collection, a collection to die, and put a death. you know that a few times? 2008 Who told you to save the city? Why?
so many years no one can give answers, and today why I do not want media coverage, I can tell you the answer, that is, all the control measures of all government policies, there is only one reason, that is, the phenomenon of making decisions based on the surface, called the stop-gap measures. This year the disease has become a headache, even worse, and also than piecemeal, because in this, understand what I mean? treating the foot.
then the nature of the four prescription what is the meaning?
This is very important, it is to use excess capacity to digest tomorrow today excess capacity, and today I want this opportunity to tell you the current crisis by how much. And you know what I say must be right, must occur, ask you to carefully listen to me the following minute, then you know your future crisis much .
What do you mean? What is the use of excess capacity tomorrow excess capacity to digest today?
I will take four trillion, for example, where is it? Midwest's infrastructure. I then expressway cases, there is no cars built after completing the above race? basically no cars running, the highway can be built after completing all excess capacity, but when the need for construction steel, required cement, so it can digest the market today, more than 200 million tons of steel excess capacity, but also to digest today, 1.1 billion tons of cement market, excess capacity, has been booming looks.
ladies and gentlemen, you know you come from the crisis? That is, how to do after finished building?
This is a question of your company, once the construction is finished after the freeway built excess capacity, eliminating the need for steel, not cement, these two industries show their colors mm excess capacity, so China will soon become a national excess capacity of a large black hole.
how to do in the future? you how to do real estate?
I thought it was all going to come out in June this year, but I still too optimistic, I say go wrong in to see how Premier Wen Jiabao told his:
listen carefully, August 26, 2009, Premier Wen Jiabao said at a State Council executive meeting, steel, cement, plate glass, coal, chemical overcapacity.
2010 on 1 March 20, March 20, April 6, said power coal, coke, iron alloy, electromagnetic, steel, nonferrous metals, building materials, light industry, textiles all excess capacity.
Why? is because the Government of the four prescription It is the result of excess production capacity with tomorrow's excess capacity to digest today, wait until after construction is finished his speech, Comrade Wen Jiabao. Ladies and gentlemen, China has slowly from now on almost all walks of life have access to a national severe overcapacity large black hole.
a new growth point in the future so how? please tell me?
did not, and no new growth point of China's economy will fall into a long-term stagnation.
Okay, so it did not rule the first four prescriptions a disease, the second disease is more serious overcapacity. If the second disease is more serious, of course, burning your hair even more serious. The second patient developed fever how come? that the remaining four as bank credit is for? short-term financing is mainly state-owned enterprises.
I ask you, state-owned enterprises of the two disease solved? did not resolve, the first disease have not been resolved, and the second disease is more serious. then state-owned enterprises to get so much money that they do it?
a large number of bank credit into the stock market caused more fever, while the phenomenon of land speculation caused the king around the endless.
there a whole year last year, the bank credit to 9.59 trillion released to the up to 12 trillion in January this year, you are not afraid of inflation? inflation to how to do? your hair in the bank's money, in order to invest the money you dare barren real economy? such as stationery to open a plastics factory, or the leather processing plants, not because we, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, severe overcapacity leather processing plants, how to do it?
a large number of hedge funds to escape the impact of inflation, the stock market, more to the impact of the property market.
Great , then we to talk about the stock market, why the stock market to pull three or four thousand points today, because the impact of three separate funds, the first two patients did not resolve, the first impact of the manufacturing sector funds. The second document, the two diseases have not been resolved, the credit financial impact. The third document, the two diseases have not been resolved, to avoid the impact of inflation, the stock market hedge funds. This three-sum impact of the stock market, only one reason: the two diseases have not been resolved with the wrong medicine.
your concern property, why is today's topic?
this subject we dig it, in fact, a good topic, please think about the property market two sum: the first, two patients did not resolve the impact of manufacturing the first property funds. The second document, the two diseases have not been resolved, to avoid an inflation hedge funds went into the property market. Both of these funds were all referred to as speculative capital, the impact of their specialized high-end real estate resulting from last year to now sell the more expensive high-end real estate The more popular the market. is not our demand, it is not, but the two pen from the impact of speculative capital.
That is why, last year, real estate developers Xinjingdantiao earn money, because in this . Both of these speculative funds were squeezed out how? two diseases have not been resolved with the wrong medicine, causing this abnormal situation, until today, until April 19, April 19, near Shanghai before the entire Great Area housing prices began to rise.
reason why the second tranche of funds to avoid an inflation hedge funds?
please note that the bubble began in 2009, you remember my advice to you? That is the next a precursor to a major crisis, ah! So what is the next big crisis?
course this is not about the topic today, I did not let too much time about this. However, please think about it, if China Wen Jiabao, according to the meaning, so multi-industry excess, but also for the first time three weeks ago, he recognized China's unemployment is not 20 million, it is blind ... Bureau of Statistics of China